US hotel stocks: vacationers are checking in, investors are not

Tourism has returned with a vengeance. Authorities have lifted mask and Covid testing requirements. Eager vacationers have been shrugging off higher airfares and thronging airports.

Hotels — some of the hardest-hit businesses during the pandemic — are benefiting from the travel surge. Too bad that not many investors are checking in.

In the US, occupancy rates and room revenues are nearing pre-pandemic levels, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association. It predicts that 63 per cent of the country’s 5mn guest rooms will be full this year, up from 44 per cent in 2020 and close to the 66 per cent occupied in 2019. Room revenues should reach $188bn by the end of this year, topping the $170bn recorded in 2019 on a nominal basis.

Second-quarter results from big hotel groups confirmed the trend. At Hilton Worldwide, revenue rose by more than two-thirds. Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, the company behind La Quinta and Howard Johnson, reported a one-third increase in net income, despite lower revenue. The latter was largely due to the group’s exposure to China.

Both companies raised full-year guidance, suggesting demand will stay robust. That has not been enough to get investors to extend their stay. Shares in Hilton are down 17 per cent this year, while Wyndham has lost 24 per cent. Marriott International, the world’s biggest hotel company by room numbers, is the relative outperformer, falling just 4 per cent. It reported a big bounceback in revenues on Tuesday, but shares were flat.

With the US in a technical recession and inflation squeezing consumers’ wallets, investors fear the rebound in travel demand will not last.

Investors would do well not to underestimate people’s desire to travel after more than two years of living with Covid restrictions. Credit card data suggest people are shifting spending away from goods to travel and entertainment. Business travel is also recovering. Bar another lockdown, investors in big hotel groups — especially those that run the gamut in terms of price points — should be able to sleep soundly enough.