What does Novak Djokovic’s Miami withdrawal mean for world No. 1 battle with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner?

Novak Djokovic’s return to Indian Wells and the Miami Open was supposed to be a chance for him to bulk up his lead as world No. 1 over Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

With no points to defend, having not played either event since 2019, Djokovic had the chance to pull away at the top of the rankings.

Instead he could start the clay season with the world No. 1 ranking up for grabs.

Djokovic’s shock third-round exit at Indian Wells to Luca Nardi saw him gain just 50 points, while Alcaraz defended his title and Sinner made the semis for the second year in a row.

So how much can Alcaraz and Sinner gain on Djokovic across the next fortnight? And when they could replace him as world No. 1?

Even though he will start April with just one match win since the Australian Open, Djokovic will still be world No. 1.

He is guaranteed to stay atop the rankings for three more weeks, which would see his total time spent as No. 1 reach 420 weeks.

Djokovic leads the rankings on 9,725 points, 920 points ahead of Alcaraz and 1,415 ahead of Sinner. Daniil Medvedev is in fourth place on 7,765 points.

Alcaraz can add a maximum of 640 points to his total if he wins the Miami Open, while last year’s runner-up Sinner could add 400 if he lifts the title.

If Alcaraz wins Miami and beats Sinner in the final then the rankings ahead of the clay season could be:

• Novak Djokovic – 9,725 points
• Carlos Alcaraz – 9,445
• Jannik Sinner – 8,710

The real fun looks set to start in the clay season.

If Alcaraz does win the title in Miami then the No. 1 ranking will be on the line in Monte Carlo, which is a Masters 1000 and the first big event of the European clay swing in April.

Alcaraz and Djokovic both missed the tournament last year so will have the same amount of points to gain.

Sinner made the semi-finals in Monte Carlo last year so isn’t able to make as big a gain as Alcaraz or Djokovic.

However, across the entire clay season Sinner does not have many points to defend.

Djokovic will defend 2,315 points over the clay swing, most of which will be at the French Open where he is the defending champion, and Alcaraz has 2,265 points to defend.

Sinner will only defend 585 points to defend on clay, which gives him the chance to make up ground.

The live rankings ahead of the Indian Wells semi-finals had Sinner moving up to world No. 2 for the first time.

But Alcaraz battled back from a set down to reach the final and swing things in his favour.

If Sinner had reached the final he would have got to world No. 2 and had at least a 350-point lead over Alcaraz heading to Miami.

Now Alcaraz has a 495-point advantage and also has fewer points (360 v 600) than Sinner to defend in Miami.

Sinner will looking to recover properly for Miami after appearing to hurt himself taking a fall in his semi-final against Alcaraz.

“At the moment, I feel a little bit everything on my body. But it’s normal. It’s sport. You know, you have to accept this,” he said afterwards.

“I had some problems, just small problems, but it was okay throughout until the third set. Then when I fell, I felt a little bit the elbow because I fell over the elbow and I rolled over. So was for me after tough to serve.

“Hopefully we will see in the next days if physically I will be good for Miami, which is for me personally the most important.”