What the Republican candidates are hoping for in the Iowa caucus

The GOP’s top presidential contenders are setting high expectations for next week’s Iowa caucus, insisting they still have a shot against former President Donald Trump, who is leading the field by more than 30 percentage points, according to polling averages.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are both battling to be Trump’s top alternative. DeSantis has vowed he’s in the race to win, while Haley has been more ambiguous about her ultimate ambition.

Despite his low polling numbers, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has also maintained he will do well in the Jan. 15 contest, with spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin vowing to The Post that the outsider candidate will “shock the system.”

Polls taken prior to the holidays averaged out to Trump receiving 51.3% support, followed by DeSantis with 18.6% and Haley with 16.1%.

Ramaswamy averaged just 5.9% support, followed by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who still averaged 3.7% support despite abandoning Iowa in favor of New Hampshire.

The DeSantis gamble

DeSantis, long seen as Trump’s chief rival, has staked the most on a good showing in the caucus.

He’s poured most of his resources into Iowa by shifting much of his staff to Des Moines, visiting all of the state’s 99 counties, and investing in door-knocking and get-out-the-vote operations.

On New Year’s Eve, the 45-year-old governor rang in 2024 by asking supporters in West Des Moines to “work hard over these next two weeks and win the Iowa caucuses.”

An unlikely win would tarnish Trump’s aura of inevitability and could cause voters in New Hampshire and — especially — South Carolina to give DeSantis a second look in what his campaign argues would be a “two-man” race.

“We believe that Iowans will reward our approach on the night of January 15,” a DeSantis rep told The Post in recent days.

On the other hand, an Iowa loss coupled with distant fourth and third-place finishes in New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively, could mean the end of the Floridian’s once-promising campaign.

Trump’s blowout bid

Meanwhile, Trump is planning on ending the race for the nomination before most voters even get a chance to weigh in.

The 77-year-old’s campaign is urging surrogates to convince new caucus-goers to turn out through their “10 for Trump” program, hoping to run up the margin on Jan. 15.

The former president has campaigned far less often in Iowa than his competitors, but has drawn larger crowds and more enthusiasm. Trump has also continued to refuse to attend debates, opting to take part in a Jan. 10 Fox News town hall event in Des Moines rather than the CNN debate between Haley and DeSantis across town.

“Right now everybody in Iowa and New Hampshire is racing for second place. How well they do in those two states will be evident in the vote in South Carolina on Feb. 24,” GOP strategist Dave Wilson told The Post.

Haley’s rise

The former South Carolina governor has attempted to downplay her standing, but her backers have made it clear that they want her to get at least second place in Iowa.

A strong showing by Haley could push enough New Hampshire voters to side with her over Trump in the Granite State’s Jan. 23 primary, particularly after several recent polls show her within striking distance of the former president there.

In December, Haley said she just needs a “good showing” in the Hawkeye State, but didn’t elaborate.

The 51-year-old’s top backer, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, made expectations more clear last week, saying she’s in line for a “strong second” in Iowa and a win in his home state.

Haley has had strong support from outside groups, and those backers have descended on Iowa in recent months.

Americans for Prosperity Action, the Charles Koch-funded super PAC backing Haley, has allocated “thousands” of its surrogates to door-knock and had promised “extensive mail, digital, and TV campaigns to supplement the on-the-ground efforts.”

AFP Action spokesperson Bill Riggs has called the race a “marathon, not a sprint” and said their efforts could put Haley in “second or third” and still set her up well for New Hampshire, South Carolina and on Super Tuesday March 5.

Haley’s camp has been outspending every other rival in ad expenditures, according to data from AdImpact.

SFA Fund Inc. — the super PAC backing Haley — has spent $27 million in Iowa, the most out of any backing organization. Her supporters have also shelled out the largest amount of total expenditures at $31 million, $300,000 above pro-DeSantis spending.

The only thing working against Haley could be her own mouth, after she told New Hampshire voters last week that they “correct” Iowa’s results.

“To tell that to New Hampshire voters while Iowa folks are still trying to make a decision is a real cut against the Iowa caucus-goers,” Wilson argued. “This is the 2024 presidential race. Every word you say matters.”