Who will win vs. who should win?

There is no “Oppenheimer” situation shaping up at the 2024 Grammy Awards, which will take place Sunday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

Indeed, there is little chance of the kind of sweep that we have seen from Billie Eilish and Bruno Mars in recent years.

Even top nominee SZA, who leads all contenders with nine nods, is hardly a lock for any of the Big 4 categories. (Although we suspect she’ll get at least one.)

And do you really think that the Recording Academy will tear Taylor Swift away from her new boo Travis Kelce just one week before the Super Bowl without giving her some precious hardware?

Plus, let’s face it, nobody gives fangirl moments at major music awards shows better than Tay-Tay. Surely Grammy, CBS and America can’t resist.

Here are our picks of who should — and who will — be doing the Grammy victory dance when the top trophies are handed out on music’s biggest night.

RECORD OF THE YEAR

Billie Eilish – What Was I Made For?
Boygenius – Not Strong Enough
Jon Batiste – Worship
Miley Cyrus – Flowers
Olivia Rodrigo – Vampire
SZA – Kill Bill
Taylor Swift – Anti-Hero
Victoria Monét – On My Mama

It’s kinda wild that, among her 12 Grammy wins since 2010 — including a historic three Album of the Year gramophones — Swift has never won either Record or Song of the Year. She’s been nominated previously for ROTY for “You Belong with Me,” “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together,” “Shake It Off” and “Blank Space.”

You gotta think that this strange streak will come to an end at some point.

But where Swift is a safer choice for Album of the Year, Grammy voters will likely want to show that they are a little cooler than that by giving this one to SZA’s killer single.

And in my mind, the only record that even comes close is “Flowers,” which seemed like a shoo-in a year ago but then wilted like the rest of Cyrus’ underappreciated “Endless Summer Vacation.”

With Swift, Cyrus and Rodrigo likely splitting the pop vote, though, SZA should ride her R&B bonafides to a win.

SHOULD/WILL WIN: SZA

ALBUM OF THE THE YEAR

Boygenius – The Record
Janelle Monáe – The Age of Pleasure
Jon Batiste – World Music Radio
Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd
Miley Cyrus – Endless Summer Vacation
Olivia Rodrigo – Guts
SZA – SOS
Taylor Swift – Midnights

It was such a defining year of the Taylor Era in 2023 that it’s hard to imagine that the Recording Academy wouldn’t want to reward the pop superstar with her own special place in history as the first artist to win this prestigious prize four times, breaking a record she currently shares with three legendary fellas: Frank Sinatra, Paul Simon and Stevie Wonder.

Judging by her stellar standards, though, “Midnights” is hardly her best album when she’s already won for 2008’s ‘Fearless,” 2014’s ‘1989” and 2020’s “Folklore.” Still, especially without any country LP in this category — meaning she’ll win a large share of Nashville voters — it’s hard to see any other album stopping the Swift train on its way to the Super Bowl. Even without her Kansas City Chiefs boyfriend Kelce by her side.

Still, SZA’s “SOS” is a far fresher affair that captured the vibes of the moment — as if Drake and Eilish had a baby. And don’t count out the only dude in the mix: If all the divas split the vote, the jazzman could snag his second Album of the Year trophy after his 2022 victory for “We Are.”

SHOULD WIN: SZA

WILL WIN: Taylor Swift

SONG OF THE YEAR

Billie Eilish – What Was I Made For?
Dua Lipa – Dance the Night
Jon Batiste – Butterfly
Lana Del Rey – A&W
Miley Cyrus – Flowers
Olivia Rodrigo – Vampire
SZA – Kill Bill
Taylor Swift – Anti-Hero

After all this time, most folks still don’t get the difference between Record and Song of the Year. And really, who can blame them?

But I always think that the best way to differentiate the two is to imagine Song of the Year as a tune that, stripped of all production and vocal technique, still holds up when it’s all about the lyrics and the melody. Going by that, it’s still a tough call between “Anti-Hero,” “Flowers,” “Vampire” and “What Was I Made For?”

Eilish and her brother, Finneas, who previously won this award for “Bad Guy” in 2020, nailed the existential angst at the heart of the “Barbie” blockbuster. They deserve it — and Oscar is sure to make no mistake about it next month.

But I have a sneaking suspicion that Swift’s 0-for-10 streak in Record and Song of the Year will come to an end with a golden gramophone for her No. 1 smash “Anti-Hero” that she wrote with Bleachers boss Jack Antonoff.

SHOJLD WIN: Billie Eilish

WILL WIN; Taylor Swift

BEST NEW ARTIST

Coco Jones
Gracie Abrams
Fred Again..
Ice Spice
Jelly Roll
Noah Kahan
Victoria Monét
The War and Treaty

What is “new” really? That is the question about this category, which is no longer limited to those who have just made their recording debuts — either on the indie or major level.

In fact, 34-year-old Monét — who is second only to SZA with seven nominations — released her debut EP, “Nightmares & Lullabies: Act 1,” way back in 2014, while also writing for the likes of Ariana Grande and Chloe x Halle.

Meanwhile, Jelly Roll had a whole other music career as a rapper before going country. But this 38-year-old ex-con’s story of redemption — and the powerful Nashville contingent behind him — shouldn’t have him needing any favors come Grammy night. 

SHOULD WIN: Victoria Monét

WILL WIN: Jelly Roll