Why California Transit Agencies Are Rebounding at Such Different Rates

In California, already famous for its love of automobiles, our dependence on cars only deepened during the coronavirus pandemic, as millions of people stopped commuting by train or bus.

Bay Area Rapid Transit, which for decades catered to workers headed to downtown San Francisco from the suburbs, has been hit particularly hard by the shift to remote work, and it is now scrambling for ways out of a deep financial hole. The ridership on the 131-mile network these days is only about 35 percent of what it was before the pandemic, according to the American Public Transportation Association.

This dismal rebound isn’t universal across California. The San Francisco-focused Muni system, Los Angeles’s buses and trains, and the AC Transit bus service based in Oakland have all been doing much better in 2023 so far, carrying closer to two-thirds of their prepandemic ridership.

On the other hand, Caltrain, the Silicon Valley commuter rail service, has been faring even worse than BART, attracting only one-quarter of its former ridership, according to the transportation association.

The variance among these transit systems reveals something about how public transportation functions in our state — and perhaps offers some clues as to its future.

For example, take Los Angeles’s sprawling Metro system.

Compared with BART, largely a commuter rail line for affluent workers, the Metro agency in Los Angeles, which offers bus, subway and light rail service, serves a lower-income population that is less likely to be able to work from home or to afford a car. Metro’s rebound has been much greater than BART’s in part because so many of its customers have no other option.

In April, ridership on buses in Los Angeles — by far the most popular mode of mass transit in the city — was almost 80 percent of what it had been in April 2019, according to agency data. The Mercury News reported last summer that more people were using public transportation in Los Angeles than in the Bay Area, a historic reversal.

Brian D. Taylor, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at U.C.L.A., noted that public transit had long sought to serve two distinct populations: workers with means, who can be lured out of their cars if public services are convenient enough, and lower-income people who rely on public transit as their only way to get around.

Up until the pandemic, BART was thriving alongside a booming tech industry, making a good case for the power of the first group, Taylor told me. Ridership on BART and Caltrain, which also served technology workers, was growing while other California transit agencies were lagging, he said.

“Then the pandemic hits, and the script flips entirely,” Taylor said. “Downtown San Francisco has had the slowest recovery of any downtown in the country, so the shining bright spot of public transit in California suddenly became the biggest Achilles’ heel.”

He added: “In many ways, L.A. rebounded faster and has recovered more because it didn’t have as many affluent riders to lose.”

There’s also been a shift in the kinds of trips people are making. Instead of commuting to the office in rush hour every morning, people might be more likely to pop out in the middle of the day to run to the grocery store or pick up their children from school, or get on the train to meet friends in the evening.

To adapt, BART is planning to shift its schedule to reduce weekday rush-hour service and offer more weekend and evening trips instead.

There’s also the question of where a bus or train makes stops. Rail systems tend to serve fewer, more concentrated destinations, while bus systems stretch farther into neighborhoods and reach a more diverse set of locations. BART mainly shuttles people between the suburbs and San Francisco’s downtown commercial centers, while the Los Angeles bus system stretches into all pockets of the city.

“It’s like a scrambled egg, where people are working and living and going in all different directions,” said Ethan Elkind, an environmental law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who wrote a book on the history of the Los Angeles subway system. “It’s a different ridership and a different mix of destinations. And BART really lived and died — and is mostly dying now — by the office environment of downtown San Francisco.”

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Where we’re traveling

Today’s tip comes from Evelyn Henry, who recommends visiting Cambria on the Central Coast: “Quiet, quaint, full of relaxing places to visit, good food and historical parks close by. Scenery is amazing.”

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We’ll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Tell us

We’re almost halfway through 2023! What are the best things that have happened to you so far this year? What have been your wins? Or your unexpected joys, big or small?

Tell me at CAToday@nytimes.com. Please include your full name and the city where you live.

And before you go, some good news

Tanishq Mathew Abraham, a 19-year-old from Sacramento, has become one of the world’s youngest Ph.D. holders, after successfully defending his dissertation last month, KTXL-TV reports.

Abraham, who studied biomechanical engineering at the University of California, Davis, credited his parents and sister with helping him achieve his goal. (His sister is also gifted: She graduated from U.C. Davis at 16.)

“Without their love and support, I wouldn’t be here today,” he told the news outlet.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

P.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword.

Briana Scalia and Johnna Margalotti contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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