Why Ukraine is unlikely behind attempted Kremlin drone attack: officials

WASHINGTON – As Moscow claims Ukraine – with help from the West – was behind what it called an “assassination attempt” on Russian President Vladimir Putin, US officials say the Kremlin claim is the stuff of make-believe.

“There is no doubt that the Kyiv regime is behind these attacks,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement Thursday. “The silence on behalf of the collective West demonstrates its connivance with the terrorist methods employed by the neo-Nazi extremist regime in Kyiv.”

Despite Russia’s accusations, the so-called “drone attacks” on Putin were highly unlikely to have been conducted by Ukraine, according to US intelligence and defense officials, as well as lawmakers.

Here’s why:

The drones’ size

Video released Wednesday of the alleged attack appears to show a small drone – the kind available at a hobby store – swarming above the Kremlin before exploding in a bright flash of flame.

While it was unclear Thursday whether the explosion was caused by the drone’s detonation or a Russian missile, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier agreed with Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that the drones “do not appear to be the kind or size of weapon that could do significant damage to the Kremlin.”

Indeed, Moscow on Wednesday said the so-called attack caused minimal damage and no casualties.

The drones’ type

Berrier also said photos of the small drones indicated they “potentially” were a kind that would have required their operators to be physically in Moscow, roughly 300 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border.

“They appear to be the kinds of drones that would require a relatively close line-of-sight control,” Cotton agreed, “which means someone on the ground in Moscow, which is not known as an open and friendly city to people who are hostile to the Russian government.”

Kyiv’s response

After Moscow levied blame for Wednesday’s incident on Ukraine, Kyiv officials were uncharacteristically quick to deny any role in the attack.

“We fight on our territory; we’re defending our buildings and cities. We don’t have enough weapons for this,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday. “For us, that is a deficit – we can’t spend it. We didn’t attack Putin.”

The vehement denial stands in contrast to Ukraine’s prior ambiguity after earlier Russian accusations of Kyiv-directed attacks, US officials have said.

“In most attacks on Russian soil, Ukraine’s government has been ambiguous or silent about responsibility for the attacks,” Cotton said. “In this case, they’ve explicitly disclaimed any responsibility.”

Putin’s location

Moscow’s presumption that the drones’ operators were attempting to assassinate Putin is one of the more egregious claims.

Not only do the drones not appear to have been capable of carrying a significant payload, the attack happened well before sunrise Wednesday — when the Russian president was not at the Kremlin.

While the Kremlin is listed as Putin’s “official residence,” it is widely known that he does not actually live there. Thus, an attempt to target the strongman at the Russian government’s headquarters would be a fools’ errand, Cotton said.

“The Kremlin is not like the White House,” the lawmaker said. “In other words, it’s not the primary residence of the president of Russia.”

While Berrier told the committee that Russia’s claims are most likely “misinformation,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said the US had not gathered enough information to make an official assessment of the incident.