Xi and Putin seek greater cooperation, but Russia’s failures in Ukraine may strain relationship, expert says

Russia and China have committed to strengthening ties between the two countries despite Moscow’s failure to quickly and effectively end its invasion of Ukraine, which may strain Beijing in the coming months. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met via public video conference Friday to discuss the bilateral relationship that has blossomed this year, with no direct mention of Ukraine in their remarks. The meeting focused on the progress both nations have made despite “geopolitical tensions” and a “difficult international situation.” 

Putin specifically highlighted a desire to increase the military collaboration between the two countries, saying that it had a “special place” in the relationship. China and Russia completed joint navy drills this week, including procedures and plans for how to capture enemy vessels. 

Xi tried to raise concerns over Ukraine, which he referred to as a “crisis,” marking a departure from previous remarks that referred to the invasion as a “situation.” 

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“Xi Jinping emphasized that China has noted that Russia has never refused to resolve the conflict through diplomatic negotiations, for which it (China) expresses its appreciation,” CCTV reported.

China promised a “no limits” friendship with Russia and refused to criticize Putin or his invasion of Ukraine, instead blamed the West for “provoking” Moscow, and Russia has in turn supported China amid rising tensions over Taiwan. 

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However, China expert Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said that the partnership would not provide the kind of “cure-all” each side wanted for their troubles with the U.S. and Europe. 

“There are clear limits to China and Russia’s ‘no-limits’ partnership,” Singleton wrote following the video conference. “More specifically, it is difficult to fathom a scenario in which China puts Russia’s needs above its own, at least not without a clear return on investment or compelling evidence that such assistance will meaningfully shift the war’s momentum in Russia’s favor.”

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China is facing a difficult home front situation as COVID-19 infections have exploded across the country, with over 18 million people infected and roughly 9,000 people dying each day, according to U.K. research firm Airfinity.

“Xi’s key challenge going forward may have less to do with making sure Putin wins, an outcome that appears increasingly unlikely, and more with figuring out just how far China is willing to go to make sure Putin does not lose,” Singleton added. 

Singleton suggested that China will likely continue to develop ties with Russia, but not at the risk of seriously antagonizing the West. “As the war in Ukraine drags on, deepening Sino-Russian ties could force Western countries to re-assess their collective willingness to pressure Xi to reign in his support for Putin.”

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“That could lead to greater friction in the U.S.-China relationship at a time when the two countries remain at loggerheads over Taiwan,” he concluded. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report.