GOP leading in Ohio midterm races, Ohioans more likely to vote for Trump in 2024 after FBI raid in new poll

Republicans are leading in the Ohio midterm election according to new poll, which also found voters are more likely to support former President Trump following the FBI raid of his Mar-a-Lago home.

An Emerson College Polling survey of voters in the Buckeye State suggested that the Republicans have a ten-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot with 51% support, compared to 41% who said they would be likely voting for a Democratic candidate this fall.

According to the poll, Trump-endorsed candidate J.D. Vance has a 5-point lead in the Ohio Senate race with 47% support over Democratic nominee Rep. Tim Ryan, who polled at 42%. Though Vance has the lead, the race remains tight with 10% of individuals still undecided as to who they would vote for.

On the flip side, Ryan is leading Vance in favorability, receiving 54% over his GOP opponent’s 50%. Still, most of those surveyed (52%) expect Vance to win the midterm election.

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When asked who they would rather vote for in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election, Trump lead the race with 53% of the Ohio vote, ahead of President Biden’s 32%. A plurality of Ohio voters said that the recent FBI raid on Trump’s Florida home made them more likely to vote for him if he decides to run.

The FBI recently raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in search of classified documents he was suspected of taking with him after leaving office.

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The poll also suggested that the most important issue to Ohio voters is the economy. The poll indicated Ohioans trust Vance to handle the economy over Ryan, however, more trusted Ryan to take on abortion access in the state.

Among Ohioans, Biden’s job approval rating is only 39%, compared to the national approval average of 40%. 

Republican Governor Mike DeWine has a strong lead over his Democrat opponent, Nan Whaley, securing 49% to Whaley’s 33%. The poll found that 8% plan to vote for someone else in November.

The Ohio midterm elections will take place this fall on Nov. 8.

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted from August 15-16, 2022. The margin of error sits at plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.