New Hampshire Poll Points to Trouble for Trump; Growing Support for DeSantis

A new Granite State Poll of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire signals weakening support for former President Donald J. Trump as the party’s presidential nominee in 2024 — and growing strength for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.

Among more than 300 likely Republican primary voters, 37 percent said they wanted Mr. Trump to be the party’s next presidential nominee, compared to 39 percent who said they would support Mr. DeSantis, within the 5.5 percent margin of error for that question. Mr. Trump is now “statistically tied,” with Mr. DeSantis, the poll shows.

That is a significant change from October, when a Granite State Poll showed Mr. Trump had support from 43 percent of likely Republican voters; Mr. DeSantis was at 18 percent.

But Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll, cautioned that there was still a lot of time before the 2024 presidential cycle: “It’s the summer time. We haven’t even had the midterm elections yet.”

The tightening between Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis is “part of a typical pattern,” Mr. Smith said in a statement. “As the primary gets closer, new candidates emerge and attract more media attention, and therefore more voter attention, than the losing candidate from the previous election.”

The poll was conducted from June 16 to 20. It also showed that among more than 840 likely 2024 general election voters, Mr. DeSantis was a stronger Republican challenger than Mr. Trump to take on President Biden in the next presidential election.

Mr. Biden, who won the state in 2020, would get 50 percent of the vote if he were running against Mr. Trump, who would get 43 percent, the poll found. But Mr. Biden was projected to get only 46 percent against Mr. DeSantis, who would pull in 47 percent, according to the poll.

In a brief interview, Mr. Smith described Mr. Trump’s slipping support as voters “drifting away from last year’s model to look at this year’s model.”