Pennsylvania showdowns: Fetterman topping Oz, Shapiro leading Mastriano, in new poll

With six weeks to go until November’s elections, a new public opinion poll in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania indicates that Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is ahead of GOP nominee Mehmet Oz in the race for Senate, with Democratic state Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano by double digits in the gubernatorial showdown.

Fetterman tops Oz, the cardiac surgeon and celebrity doctor, 51%-44% among those likely to vote in the general election, according to a Marist College Poll in Pennsylvania conducted Sept. 19-22 and released on Tuesday. Among a wider pool of all registered voters, the survey indicates Fetterman with a 10-point 51%-41% lead, with 7% of those questioned undecided.

“What is particularly unusual in these numbers, is that, with still six weeks to go, most voters have already picked sides,” Marist College institute for Public Opinion Lee Miringoff highlighted. “Few Keystone voters are undecided or say they support a candidate but might vote differently.”

An average of all the recent public opinion surveys in the race compiled by Real Clear Politics indicates Fetterman with a 4.5-point advantage over Oz. The race between the two high-profile candidates to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is one of a handful across the country that will likely determine if the GOP wins back the Senate majority in the midterm elections. 

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According to the Marist Poll, Fetterman leads Oz by 22 points among independent votes, with just over one in 10 Independents undecided.

“Fetterman is ahead of Oz among most demographic groups. Notable exceptions are Republicans, white Evangelical Christians, white voters without a college education, and voters living in rural areas,” the release from Marist noted.

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Also contributing to Fetterman’s lead in the survey: the lieutenant governor’s backers are 12 points more likely than Oz supporters to express a strong commitment to vote for their candidate. Additionally, while Fetterman’s favorable rating is in positive territory at 45%-39%, Oz is underwater at 30%-51%.

In the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, Shapiro tops Mastriano 54%-42% among likely voters and by a comparable 53%-40% among registered voters.

“A plurality of Pennsylvanians (47%) has a favorable view of Shapiro while a similar plurality (45%) has an unfavorable view of Mastriano,” the poll notes.

The Real Clear Politics average of the most recent polls in the race for governor indicates Shapiro leading Mastriano by nine points.

Four in 10 of those questioned said inflation is their top issue, with preserving democracy (29%) second, followed by abortion (16%), immigration (7%), and health care (7%). Most Republicans (56%) said inflation was their most pressing issue. Preserving democracy, at 40%, was the top issue for Democrats. Among independents, 38% said inflation and 36% cited preserving democracy.

The Marist Poll questioned 1,356 Pennsylvania adults, including 1,242 registered voters and 1,043 who said they’re likely to vote in this year’s general election. The sampling error for registered voters was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for likely voters.