Polls close in special congressional election seen as bellwether ahead of likely Biden-Trump rematch

GARDEN CITY, N.Y. – The polls have closed in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, in a closely watched special election for a vacant House seat once held by former Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the chamber in December.

With the GOP hanging on to a razor-thin majority in the House, national Republicans and Democrats have poured big bucks into a race in suburban New York City where immigration and border security, crime, and abortion are top issues, and where the election is seen as a bellwether ahead of the all-but-certain November White House rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump.

The Long Island district held for a decade by Democrats was flipped by Santos in the 2022 midterms. But Santos was kicked out of Congress less than a year into his tenure, after he was exposed for lying about his background and indicted for a slew of financial crimes.

Former three-term Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, who’s running to reclaim his old seat, has repeatedly tied Republican candidate Mazi Pilip to Santos, as well as to former President Donald Trump.

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“Who knows what she really stands for? She’s George Santos 2.0. It’s the exact same nontransparent, phony baloney, just trying to get votes instead of saying what you really think,” Suozzi charged on the eve of the election.

And Suozzi, a former mayor and county executive, argued that Pilip – who is in her second term as a county lawmaker – “is a far-right wing extremist” who is “totally in line with Mike Johnson and Donald Trump .”

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Pilip, an Ethiopian Jew who fled to Israel at age 12 to escape persecution and who later enlisted and served in the Israeli military before immigrating to the United States, has linked Suozzi to President Biden and blamed him for the migrant crisis.

“You know, he is the one who opened the southern border. He voted with Biden 100% of the time. He supported squad members 90% of the time, he is the one who caused the migrant crisis,” Philip claimed in a Fox News interview on Sunday.

Suozzi, a centrist and moderate Democrat, has kept his distance from Biden and his party when it comes to immigration.

With Republicans currently holding a fragile 219-212 majority in the House – with four vacancies – a pickup by the Democrats would put the GOP’s grip on the chamber further in peril.

The contest may also offer clues to how top issues like immigration and abortion will impact November’s elections. 

“Tom Souzzi rolled out the red carpet for illegal immigrants,” claims a recent TV ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main super PAC supporting House Republicans.

And a commercial from the House Majority PAC, the top super PAC backing House Democrats, charges that “Mazi Pilip is running on a platform to ban abortion.”

Besides campaigning heavily on crime and immigration, Pilip – a former Democrat who argues the party “left me and many others” – is also spotlighting the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel as she aims to win voters unhappy with the far-left’s criticism of the Jewish State and support for the Palestinians.

But her support of Trump – who she has acknowledged she voted for in 2020 – may hurt her with moderate voters who are not fans of the former president.

Suozzi – who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022 rather than seek re-election to the House – is showcasing his support for Israel and a trip he made to the country last year.

While Suozzi, a campaign veteran, has welcomed his interactions with reporters, Pilip’s public appearances have been carefully managed.

The district, which includes a sliver of the outer portion of the New York City borough of Queens, is anchored in neighboring Nassau County. And it’s the kind of suburban district where Democrats need to dominate in the 2024 elections as they aim to reclaim the House majority they lost in the 2022 midterms.

But while Democrats have performed well in suburban districts in recent cycles, Republicans have a history of coming out on top on New York’s Long Island. While Biden carried the current confines of the district by eight points in his 2020 presidential election victory, Santos won the 2022 election for the open House seat by the same margin.

The final public opinion polls in the special election suggested that Souzzi was clinging to a slight single-digit edge over Pilip.

Turnout is considered key in the outcome of this election. Democrats appeared to enjoy a slight edge in the nine-day early voting period, which ended on Sunday.

And a winter snowstorm walloped the District on Tuesday morning, as polls opened. While the treacherous weather passed by early afternoon, it could impact Election Day voter turnout.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.