This Year’s Iowa Caucus Is On Track For Lowest Turnout Since 2000

The 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses are on track to have the lowest turnout since 2000 after bitter cold and a snowstorm kept many voters at home.

A New York Times analysis of the results released so far estimated that the final turnout will be around 110,000 voters. As of 11:30 pm Eastern time, about 105,000 votes had been recorded.

That would be significantly below the 187,000 Republicans who voted in 2016, which was a record turnout. About 122,000 voted in 2012, 118,000 in 2008 and about 87,000 in 2000.

One of the big questions about Monday was just how many people would be willing to brave what has become the coldest caucus day in Iowa history to support their candidate of choice.

Before the forecasts for severe weather, some of the campaigns had been preparing for a record turnout of more than 200,000. But a brutal snowstorm and persistent severe weather conditions dashed those predictions. The National Weather Service office in Des Moines reported that the highest temperature recorded on Monday barely rose above zero to 1 degree, about 15 degrees colder than the previous coldest caucus day in 1972.

Turnout appeared to drop severely across Iowa — with thousands staying home in the most populous counties compared to 2016.

For example, Woodbury County — which includes Sioux City on Iowa’s western edge — recorded 2,763 votes compared to 4,426 in 2016, dropping by more than a third. Turnout also fell in Scott County — which includes Davenport on Iowa’s eastern edge — recording 5,797 votes compared to to 7,946 in 2016.

Iowans in some locations had overcome the frigid wind chills and snowy roads to make a strong showing at their precincts, with organizers hurriedly reaching for extra chairs, looking for ways to open additional space and scrambling to search for additional registration forms for first-time caucusgoers.

In Sioux Center, a city in northwestern Iowa with a population of about 8,400, the wind chill went down to 31 degrees below zero. But the caucus site, an event center housing three separate precincts, was filled with roughly 400 voters. Some were left standing.

But in most precincts, turnout was much lower than expected.

Dan Hess, a precinct chair and site captain at Franklin Middle School in Cedar Rapids, said he was expecting “a pretty low turnout,” citing the bad weather. There had been 225 caucusgoers in his precinct in 2016. Only about 50 turned up to the caucus site, which is hosting two precincts, by the scheduled start time Monday.

Amy Guidry, a precinct chair, said that 280 people had made commitments to attend the caucus in Ankeny, in the suburbs of Des Moines. But only about 110 people ultimately gathered to vote in the main gym at Ankeny High School.

Reporting was contributed by Nate Cohn, Cindy Hadish, Maya King, Kellen Browning and Ann Klein.