User’s manual to the effort by some GOPers to return McCarthy to the Speakership

Could the former House Speaker be the future House Speaker?

Watch to see an effort this week by some allies of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to draft him for the Speakership again. 

Fox is told it’s likely a challenge for either House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) or Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to secure the votes to become Speaker. 

At least quickly. 

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Both Scalise and Jordan come with baggage and that will divide the House Republican Conference. It is unclear how long it could take either candidate – or any candidate – to earn the necessary votes on the floor to win. 

“Pack your lunch,” said one Republican to Fox about how long the Speaker’s race may take. The earliest a floor vote could happen is Thursday. 

That’s why some McCarthy loyalists believe that the former Speaker should run again. 

It’s notable that McCarthy made a point of telling reporters Friday that he would not resign. Some McCarthy acolytes believe that McCarthy may not be out yet – pointing to his remarks on Fox Saturday that the House is paralyzed and cannot respond to the war in the Middle East. 

Some close to McCarthy suggested that even if McCarthy doesn’t return to the Speakership immediately, he may remain in the House, raise money for GOP candidates and hope to recapture the Speakership if Republicans retain control of the House in 2025. 

McCarthy may be able to raise money and campaign for the members he wants in the party – and work against those who helped oust him. 

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The same scenario helps for McCarthy if Republicans are in the minority. McCarthy could return as Minority Leader if Republicans lose the House. The threshold to win the leadership role in the conference is a lot easier than the Speakership on the floor. So that could work to McCarthy’s favor. 

Rank and file Republicans are torn over Scalise and Jordan. Some linked to McCarthy believe Scalise has tried to undercut the former Speaker during his time in office. But they aren’t necessarily enamored either with Jordan. Some Republicans believe a vote for Jordan is in essence a vote for ultra-conservatives. One GOPer characterized supporting Jordan as voting for Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and validating his effort to unseat McCarthy. 

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So Republicans are torn. And this is exactly why the Speaker election may take a while. 

And if Republicans are unable to arrive at a consensus candidate, some GOPers believe the party could return to the Speakership the very man they evicted last week. 

Here’s the calendar:

House Republicans meet Monday night behind closed doors to hash out their differences. 

GOPers conduct a candidate forum on Tuesday, hearing the pros and cons of those running for Speaker. 

On Wednesday, the conference takes a secret vote on who it wants to nominate for Speaker on the floor. Keep in mind that the nomination only goes to whichever candidate secures a majority of the conference. So that figure could be as low as 113 (if they include the three non-voting GOP delegates to the House).

However, the full House votes for Speaker  

A successful Speaker candidate needs an outright majority of all House members voting for someone by name on the floor. So that figure is 217 if all 433 House members participate. 

“This is going to be a grind,” said one GOP member to Fox.